Bard professor studies whether social quarantine for COVID-19 is extreme
Matthew Junge, assistant professor of mathematics at Bard College, has been awarded a national research grant to calculate COVID-19 transmission rates. Photo submitted

Bard professor studies whether social quarantine for COVID-19 is extreme

ANNANDALE-ON-HUDSON, N.Y. — The best methods for pinpointing COVID-19 transmission rates continue to elude public health and infectious disease experts in the U.S. and globally. 

Now, it appears that mathematics may help connect the dots, particularly for small, rural areas such as Litchfield and Dutchess counties.

Three college professors, including Matthew Junge, assistant professor of mathematics at Bard College in Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y., have been awarded a $60,000 Emergency Grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to develop forecasting models that better capture the geographic and social complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Junge, lead investigator on the project, said his research team aims to develop network models and mathematical theory to test the robustness of some prominent models being used by governments to justify the extreme levels of intervention of the COVID-19 quarantine.

“Possibly we will provide some evidence that targeted intervention allows for many people to resume some semblance of normal day-to-day life,” said Junge, who will be working with Felicia Keesing, a biology professor at Bard and Nicole Eikmeier, a computer science professor with Grinnell College in Iowa. 

While some of the research “will be purely theoretical,” said Junge, the goal is to provide insights to those who are developing strategies to mitigate the spread of the disease.

“Our models may help resolve questions about specific communities, like, ‘Can Bard College hold class in person this fall without risking another spike in infections?’ or ‘If Dutchess County reopens restaurants, what should the occupancy limits be?’” 

The grant was awarded through the NSF’s Rapid Response Research program, which provides support for urgent scientific research that responds to emergencies and unexpected events. It includes funding for salaries, publishing costs and several undergraduate research assistants over a six-month period.

Junge explained that most existing models take a “zoomed-out” perspective — for instance, making statistical predictions using past infection and death counts. His team’s project, however, “zooms in,” he said, “and models individual connections in a community. 

The zoomed-out models are better at answering questions like ‘How many Americans will die of COVID-19 by the end of summer?’” he said, whereas the research team’s models aim to more precisely pinpoint the pandemic’s geographic and social complexities.

One advantage of a network model, which tries to accurately describe the face-to-face interactions each individual in a society has and how an infection might spread, is that it is relatively easy to implement social distancing into the network.

“Mathematics are fairly adept at modeling the natural evolution of epidemics,” said Junge.  “But most ‘off the shelf’ models were not built to describe the dramatic levels of intervention, such as business closures, travel limitations and social distancing, that we are living through during the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Junge. 

“The grant brings together a biologist, computer scientist and mathematician as well as a few undergrad research assistants, to tackle this problem over the next six months. Felicia is an expert in infectious disease, Nicole in modeling real world networks, and I am experienced in network infection models.”

Once the research is completed, Junge said the hope is that the team’s research will offer “an alternate perspective from the zoomed-out models. This work tests their robustness, and could possibly help smaller communities — counties not countries — make policy decisions about managing disease spread.”

Latest News

Bobbie C. Palmer

LAKEVILLE ­— Bobbie C. Palmer, born in Lakeville on Jan. 13, 1948, passed away peacefully on March 4, 2024. He is survived by his loving wife, Marva J. Palmer, son Marc (Sandra) Palmer, daughter Erica (Fleming) Wilson, two grandchildren, Andrew Yost and Ciara Wilson, and two great grandchildren. He was predeceased by his parents Walter and Francis Palmer and four brothers; Henry Palmer, William Palmer, John Palmer and Walter Palmer Jr.

He leaves behind a legacy of love, kindness, and laughter that will be cherished by his family and those closest to him.

Keep ReadingShow less
Finding ‘The Right Stuff’ for a documentary

Tom Wolfe

Film still from “Radical Wolfe” courtesy of Kino Lorber

If you’ve ever wondered how retrospective documentaries are made, with their dazzling compilation of still images and rare footage spliced between contemporary interviews, The Moviehouse in Millerton, New York, offered a behind-the-scenes peek into how “the sausage is made” with a screening of director Richard Dewey’s biographical film “Radical Wolfe” on Saturday, March 2.

Coinciding with the late Tom Wolfe’s birthday, “Radical Wolfe,” now available to view on Netflix, is the first feature-length documentary to explore the life and career of the enigmatic Southern satirist, city-dwelling sartorial icon and pioneer of New Journalism — a subjective, lyrical style of long-form nonfiction that made Wolfe a celebrity in the pages of Esquire and vaulted him to the top of the best-seller lists with his drug-culture chronicle “The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test” and his first novel, “The Bonfire of The Vanities.”

Keep ReadingShow less
Art on view this March

“Untitled” by Maureen Dougherty

New Risen

While there are area galleries that have closed for the season, waiting to emerge with programming when the spring truly springs up, there are still plenty of art exhibitions worth seeking out this March.

At Geary Contemporary in Millerton, founded by Jack Geary and Dolly Bross Geary, Will Hutnick’s “Satellite” is a collection of medium- and large-scale acrylic on canvas abstracts that introduce mixtures of wax pastel, sand and colored pencil to create topographical-like changes in texture. Silhouettes of leaves float across seismic vibration lines in the sand while a craterous moon emerges on the horizon, all like a desert planet seen through a glitching kaleidoscope. Hutnick, a resident of Sharon and director of artistic programming at The Wassaic Project in Amenia, New York, will discuss his work at Geary with New York Times art writer Laura van Straaten Saturday, March 9, at 5 p.m.

Keep ReadingShow less