Chris Dodd should take the hint

Chris Dodd is about as unelectable as unindicted incumbents ever get.

That’s the brutal assessment of the bipartisan and highly respected Cook Political Report, which has moved the 2010 Connecticut Senate race from its previous “toss up†status to “leaning Republican.†This hardly ever happens in races involving entrenched, incumbent senators like Dodd, who are usually as hard to dislodge from their seats as safely gerrymandered Congressmen like John Larson and Rosa DeLauro. The Cook Report places Dodd among the few exceptions to that rule.

“It is increasingly clear to both independent analysts and Democratic leaders that Dodd is just too badly damaged to have a decent shot at getting re-elected, almost regardless of who wins the Republican nomination,†wrote Jennifer Duffy, the senior editor of the political journal that specializes in analyzing races. “Democrats have given (Dodd) time to attempt to repair his problems, but nothing appears to have helped enough to salvage his position.â€

The next question for Democratic leaders in Connecticut and Washington, according to The Cook Report, is how long it will be “before Dodd takes the hint that it is time to exit the race.â€

The Cook analysis was published at about the same time a second poll, this one by Rasmussen, had Dodd losing a re-election bid to just about every breathing Republican hopeful. Standing alone, Rasmussen wouldn’t have made much of an impact, but it confirmed November’s devastating Quinnipiac poll that also had Dodd suffering double-digit losses to not only front-runner Rob Simmons, but also to the wrestling magnate Linda McMahon. Neither of these Republicans is exactly a moderate in the Olympia Snowe/Susan Collins mold.

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Like many observers of the decline and fall of Chris Dodd, Cook traces his troubles to that dreadful 2007 campaign for president, which saw him move his family to Iowa soon after he had become the new Democratic Senate majority’s chairman of the important Banking Committee. These two occupations, Cook noted, are too demanding to be conducted simultaneously.

“In his quest for the nomination, the Banking Committee chairman missed the warning signs of the impending banking crisis,†Cook reported. “Republicans make the argument that Dodd was asleep at the switch and is thus at least partly responsibility for the severity of the crisis. It’s not hard to see how voters might buy into this argument without too much convincing.†Nor do voters ignore the fact that the presidential campaign was largely financed by the same interests the Banking Committee chairman failed to regulate.

Chances are the loss of Dodd’s seat and a couple of others will still leave the Democrats with a Senate majority, but it will be the same fragile majority that hasn’t been able to do much in this first year of a Democratic administration.

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There are widespread reports here and in Washington that worried Democrats are quietly, for now, expressing the hope that Dodd will step aside in time to save the much needed seat, but they are not expected to be quiet for much longer. Republicans are taking another approach, ignoring the senator because they believe if they attack him too vigorously, they could force him out of the race and find him replaced by Dick Blumenthal or some other candidate who would be harder for a Republican like Rob Simmons or the wrestling lady to defeat.

Colleen Flannagan, the spokeswoman for Connecticut Democrats, who has the unenviable job of responding to the never-ending bad news about the senior senator, dismissed the Cook analysis by saying, “It’s no secret what the Washington smart guys think about this race, but it doesn’t matter what they think. They don’t vote in Connecticut and they just don’t understand Chris Dodd’s decades of service and the relationship he’s built with folks here by delivering for them time and again.â€

He could undo so much of that by running again.

Dick Ahles is a retired journalist from Simsbury. E-mail him at dahles@hotmail.com.